OK, not much of a diary, but this is a major overhaul of the ACASignups.net Graph, so I figured I should post it here. Besides, it's kind of pretty :)
After much thought, I've gone ahead and added the 3.1 million "young adults on their parents' plans" directly into the chart instead of just including a note about them.
I've also added the final column to the spreadsheet and have started representing it in the Graph (though it's only a tiny sliver right now): SHOP Small Business enrollments. Neither these, nor "direct" (off-exchange) private QHP enrollments "count" towards the mystical "7 Million" in the CBO projection, but they're still people signing up for ACA-compliant healthcare plans and therefore still count towards the larger total.
The grand total now stands at nearly 13.5 million...or 11.4 million, if you want to be a real stickler and not "count" Medicaid/CHIP recipients who were previously eligible but only "came out of the woodwork" thanks to the ACA publicity/exchange outreach/etc.
Oh, and yes, Medicaid/CHIP renewals have been removed from the total on the website, both in the spreadsheets as well as on the chart.
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Oh, as a little bonus nugget: The 36 states on the Federal exchange have finally exceeded the number of private enrollments of the 15 state-run exchanges. You can see this on the Private QHP Spreadsheet, at the very bottom:
Federal Exchange Total: 1,685,786Now, it's possible that the 489K "not broken out" could conceivably still tip the balance towards the state-level exchanges, but that's highly unlikely. For one thing, it'd have to be around an 80/20 split in favor of the state exchanges for that to happen. For another, I already have data from most of the state exchanges through as recently as 2 days ago, while almost all of the Federal exchange states are only updated through 12/28.
State Exchange Total: 1,314,611
Not Broken Out By State Yet: 489,000
So, if anything, I'd be willing to bet that it's the other way around--a 4:1 split favoring the 36 Federal-run states.