With the unexpected addition of QHP updates from 2 Federal Exchange-based states over the weekend (West Virginia and New Mexico), I've updated the Off-Season QHP Projection spreadsheet again, and now have it sitting at a range of between 9,500 - 12,500 additional exchange-based QHPs per day, or 285K - 375K per month:
I've also made a slight modification as to how I'm distinguishing the upper & lower-bound numbers. Instead of simply dropping Oregon out of the mix, I'm instead using every state with post-4/19 data for the upper bound, and then taking 75% of that for the lower bound. This has the same overall effect but seems more sensible than singling out one particular state for being an outlier, especially when West Virginia is coming in at a very high rate as well.
In any event, this revision suggests that the total 2014 exchange QHP total should end up between 10.0 - 10.6 million.
Subtract 10% from that for non-payment and you have somewhere between 9.0 - 9.5 million PAID QHPs by November 15, 2014...at which point the 2nd open enrollment period starts up.