Two years ago I published a bunch of diaries on Senate races, with elaborate graphs.
They're BAAAAACK!
Method:
1. I gathered polling data from Pollster.com and from brownsox's summaries. I only included polls in 2008.
2. I assigned the undecided in two ways: 60% to the challenger (per general practice) and 50-50. The first method is represented by solid boxes. The latter method by hollow dots.
3. I then added loess lines to all 4 series of boxes: Solid lines for the solid boxes, dotted lines for the hollow dots. Good descriptions of loess (aka local regression) are here (technical notes on local regression)
In the really green part of Oregon, Gordon Smith has a long tradition of presenting himself as the moderate, anti-drilling, good guy. In fact, one of his infamous ads in which he tries to pretend he's been endorsed by Obama, trumpets
"Who says Gordon Smith helped lead the fight for better gas mileage and a cleaner environment? Barack Obama!"
Clean environment? Tell that to the Oregon Department of Environmental Equality, not to mention the folks in Weston, OR.
For the second time in about a year, wastewater from the frozen-foods plant owned and operated in Eastern Oregon by the family of U.S. Sen Gordon Smith (R-Ore.) overflowed into a nearby creek in violation of state environmental regulations....
Smith Frozen Foods has a long history of wastewater violations.... According to the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, an employee of Smith Frozen Foods contacted the state agency on July 29 (while the plant was processing corn) to report an overflow from the company's wastewater lagoon that "resulted in a milky discharge to Pine Creek."
...[T]he incident is considered a serious "Class 1" violation, meaning it "can harm aquatic life, contaminate drinking waters, and impair recreational, commercial and agricultural uses of water."...
On July 30, 2007, at the height of last year's corn season, Smith Frozen Foods had a similar violation. That violation resulted in a $3,000 fine — a small sum compared with the $25,000 DEQ fine in 1992 for another infraction. Between those two events, Smith Frozen Foods has been cited or fined by the DEQ more than a handful times.
After one of those fines in the early 1990s, Smith received $766,000 in state and federal grants to bring his plant into compliance with environmental regs. And then he had the gall to run his first, losing campaign against Wyden on "the principles of less government and unfettered free enterprise."
The most recent spill (there have been six or seven in the past 15 years) is hardly the same scope as the massive fish kill of 2002 that Smith helped engineer with Dick Cheney and Karl Rove, an environmental and economic disaster that killed over 60,000 fish, including naturally raised Chinook and endangered Coho salmon.
But it does put the lie to Smith's claim that he's a friend to the environment. And it's one of the reasons Oregon's environmental and conservation communities are lining up behind Jeff Merkley.
Yesterday Kagro X posted a great diary about this Vote Vets ad asking why we are not running it this cycle. There are 17 Republican Senators running for re-election that voted against this body armor that the troops needed.
Regardless if Vote Vets or anyone else renews this ad, we must use it to our advantage right now. The redder the state the better the reception is my opinion.
This ad ran against George Allen, Rick Santorum and Conrad Burns. All were defeated for reelection.
The same vote against giving our troops the body armor they needed that the ad criticizes was also cast by 17 Republican Senators seeking reelection this year:
Lamar Alexander (TN)
Saxby Chambliss (GA)
Thad Cochran (MS)
Norm Coleman (MN)
Susan Collins (ME)
John Cornyn (TX)
Elizabeth Dole (NC)
Mike Enzi (WY)
Lindsey Graham (SC)
Jim Inhofe (OK)
Mitch McConnell (KY)
Pat Roberts (KS)
Jeff Sessions (AL)
Gordon Smith (OR)
Ted Stevens (AK)
John Sununu (NH)
And not only that, but these Senators had all been elected or reelected just months before. That is, the Senate class of 2002, elected in November of that year, cast these votes in April of 2003, at the very beginning of their terms, and nearly six years away from having to face the voters for it.
They thought you'd forget. They needed you to forget.
But one thing they weren't counting on was the troops still being deployed and still fighting six years later.
But they are. And though some of these clowns have since tried to make amends, the fact remains that at the critical time, they put party politics over the lives of our troops, and voted against giving them the armor they needed.
They should all go down for it, and American voters should make a special point of sinking them for their cowardly votes that they hoped we'd forget.
These ads are just the way to do it, too. But they're not on the air.
They've been produced, as you can see. All they need are new tags to identify the 17 Republican Senators up for reelection this year who voted against giving our troops adequate body armor, and they're ready to go. They've been proven in the field, and you can see the impact they'd have right here before your very eyes.
But they're not on the air. And as far as I can tell, there are no plans to put them there.
Seventeen Republican Senators, some of them very, very vulnerable this year. What could we do with those seats in our hands?
Why aren't these ads on the air?
Big time Democrats, donors, and other convention goers: think on this, please. Use the time we spend together in Denver to remedy this.
Why aren't these ads on the air, and what can we do to change that?
Republican Gordon Smith's campaign has a serious problem addressing the issues Oregonians and Americans care about. The problem? He doesn't talk about them, instead he focuses on negative and misleading attacks. Gordon Smith's Campaign has spent nearly two million dollars attacking Oregon Senate candidate Jeff Merkley. This past week Smith continued his baseless attacks on Jeff and the Oregon Legislature for their recent renovation of the Oregon Capitol Building. Smith is also airing another negative ad pushing the tired ol' "he's a big bad tax and spend liberal" meme. It's a shame that Gordon Smith doesn't feel the need to address the real problems America is facing and would rather spend his time attacking Jeff Merkley.
Full disclosure, I am the netroots director for OR-Sen candidate Jeff Merkley
Most Oregonian Kossacks have seen this commercial already and dismissed it as a benign, unsubstantiated charge of lavish spending by Jeff Merkley's legislature. What you might not have picked up on is a very real anti-gay dogwhistle that shows Gordon Smith is pulling out all the stops to get elected against the interests of his constituents.
Gordon Smith is now airing an ad attacking Jeff Merkley and the Oregon state legislature for the cost of renovating the capitol building here in Salem, Oregon. That's right folks, Gordon Smith, the man who voted for the Iraq War and Cheney's energy boondoggle of 2003 is attacking Jeff Merkley, claiming he's fiscally irresponsible.
Full disclosure, I am the netroots director for OR-Sen candidate Jeff Merkley
So with about three months to go, with Ted Stevens' indictment dominating the Senate news, it's time for another look at all the 2008 Senate races. There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively. Now obviously, quite a few of the races are considered "safe" for the incumbent. So what are the competitive races?
I'll rank these in terms of tiers. The top tier will be the races where the party holding the seat has a real shot of switching (but I ain't guaranteeing anything). The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point. Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play. And the safe seats? Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.
This is meant to be a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike, so some of the information may seem repetitive for you junkies out there. Also see my previous May diary to see what things have changed since my last update.
In what has become such a desperate habit that even the AP has picked up on the trend, endangered Republican Gordon Smith once again tries to cozy up to Democrats, telling Oregon voters he's much more like Barack Obama and John Kerry than that nasty Bush fellow.
Smith is obviously in the race of his career, with Dem Jeff Merkley running strong. The problem with Smith's ridiculous tactic of trying to play the Dem in this race is that his would-be endorsers will have none of it. Here's John Kerry responding:
"Gordon Smith is my friend, but the problem is that when it's come time to vote in the Senate he's been a much better friend of George Bush," Kerry said in a statement.
"Voting with George Bush 90 percent of the time just isn't good for the people and issues I've fought for over a lifetime," Kerry added. "It's not personal, it's about what's best for our country. The inescapable fact is that electing Jeff Merkley is the only way we can win a Senate majority that gets things done for people again."
Smith doesn't really talk about his whole record, especially his conspiracy with Dick Cheney to violate the Endangered Species Act to make some farmers happy, a collaboration that resulted in largest fish kill in the modern history of the west.
He's Bush's and Cheney's guy through and through. As Barack Obama made clear all the way back in May:
"Gordon Smith's problem is that he rarely breaks away from George Bush and the Republican agenda that I think has done this country great damage."
Smith knows he has to distance himself as far from his own voting record and from the Republican brand as possible to eke this thing out. But his efforts to glom onto the in-crowd in this election are looking more and more pathetic. And while he's working so hard to woo Oregon's Independents and moderate Dems, he might just be giving his Republican base just one more reason to stay home November 4.
THURSDAY NIGHT IS HEALTH CARE CHANGE NIGHT: a weekly DailyKos Health Care Series
Transformation of our ailing health care system is a necessity apparent to every sector of American society but insurance companies and the current administration. Some Senate staffers have privately suggested to me that by doing nothing, the Senate is making systemic collapse (and implementation of Single Payer) inevitable. Although Americans openly despise private insurers, we remain unable to pass HR 676, Conyers' effort to establish a national public health service.
Even if we elect a new President, if we cannot infuse the Senate with a fresh crop of progressive faces, we will again fail to replace a health care system that monetarily rewards the denial of care. Representative Jeff Merkley, an Oregon Democrat, is one candidate who will champion health care transformation. I had the opportunity to interview him for ePluribus Media and Daily Kos at Netroots Nation. I will not pretend to be objective for the sake of this diary. The netroots should assist progressive candidates to win Senate seats.
Yipee! The Independent Party of Oregon has just nominated Oregon Senate candidate Jeff Merkley! This is great news for the Merkley Campaign considering the Independent Party boasts over 22,000 members and is growing rapidly. The Independent Party is now the third largest party in the state which is pretty impressive considering they just formed back in 2007. John Frohnmayer had been running for the Independent Party's nomination but he bowed out of the race back in June. More below the fold....
Full disclosure, I am the netroots director for OR-Sen candidate Jeff Merkley
The Oregonian has an article highlighting Senator Smith (OR) taking $39,000 from indicted Senator Stevens of Alaska. Of that $39,000, Smith pocketed $10,000 personally to help repay his 1996 campaign debt. 21st Century Democrats endorsed candidate, Jeff Merkley, called on Smith to donate the entire $39,000 to charities to help provide health insurance to Oregon children.
More importantly, House Speaker Merkley questions whether Smith's support for the infamous "bridge to nowhere" and drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge was connected to Stevens' financial support. After Smith pocketed Stevens' money, Smith supported Stevens' top priorities, including the "bridge to nowhere" and drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
Right now, millions of Americans are uninsured and millions more are under-insured. Seniors are having a difficult time being able to afford their prescription drugs. American families can't keep up with the high cost of hospice care and child care. Thousands of Americans die every year because they can't afford to get treatment. Bush and Republicans like Gordon Smith have done nothing but line the pockets of big pharma and the insurance industry at the expense of the health of American families.
Full disclosure, I am the netroots director for OR-Sen candidate Jeff Merkley
With the end of July nearing and the election now only 99 days away, I thought it was appropriate to publish a review of the last month's action in Oregon politics. In addition, I preview what lies ahead in August and give updates on previous race ratings or other information I have talked about in my earlier diaries.
I have to admit that in the run up to Oregon's May primary, I was more of a Steve Novick guy. I liked his attitude and his spunk. I liked his activism and his sense of humor. I liked his positions.
It's not that I didn't like Jeff Merkley. As Speaker of the Oregon House, he led a remarkable session in which the Democrats were able to pass legislation including (but not limited to) increasing primary education funding by a billion bucks, higher ed by a billion four, outlawing discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity and providing same-sex couples with state granted rights, immunities, and benefits (this, after voters banned same sex marriage). This was no small feat, considering the slim majority that Democrats held-31-29.
In 2006 we had a crop of Congressional challengers that was poised to win in tough districts and take back the House and Sente. It was a cautious list, at times a moderate list, and while there have been some excellent progressive lawmakers from that group (Steve Cohen, John Hall, Bernie Sanders and Sherrod Brown come to mind), overall it was a list full of more Democrats instead of better ones. You never know what you're really going to get from a candidate until they're in office, but this year there are some promising signs that the class of 2008 is substantively better on several issues.
Well this is interesting news indeed. Will incumbent republican senator Gordon Smith switch parties next? He's been running from the Republican party since May.
