In the North Carolina and Oregon Democratic US Senate primaries this year, two great progressive candidates ran for the nomination: Jim Neal (NC) and Steve Novick (OR). The DSCC, who is not supposed to pick sides in a primary, appears to have secretly funded their preferred candidates anyway (Kay Hagan (NC) and Jeff Merkley (OR)).
If the DSCC leaders personally had a preference, that’s fine. BUT IT IS NOT OK TO FUNNEL MONEY TO ONE CANDIDATE OVER ANOTHER IN A DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY!!!! That's unfairly taking sides and deliberately influencing an election, and that is not what the Democratic Party is about.
Let me start by saying that I am an Obama supporter. I want to let Clinton supporters know that whatever happens, I will be voting as a Democrat in my first presidential election. I expect them to do the same, albeit the passions we've seen recently.
I may not agree with the Clinton campaign on a variety of issues, but in light of Saturday's RBC meeting, I can say that we can agree on one thing: we need to come together as a Democratic party that represents all of the parties within the party.
I don't agree that the Obama campaign has "hijacked four delegates" from the Clinton campaign, nor do I feel that Michigan or Florida were elections that could have official results given the extenuating circumstances. I think there is a pattern where party leaders have faulted in leadership, especially in relation to their control over the primary process. More after the jump...
I'm still in mourning for the US Senate campaign of my friend Steve Novick, which ended on Tuesday after a last minute infusion of about $400K of independent advertising and phone calls funded by the DSCC for Novick's opponent in the Oregon primary.
Whatever. Those reasons are in the past now and we're all on the same team, the team that will take down Gordon Smith in November.
But Steve gave the most gracious, funny, gallant, dignified, and upbeat concession speech I've ever heard, or heard of. Maybe the best ever. And it would be a shame for the dailykos community not to get a chance to see it..... although I sure as hell wish I had never had to hear it.
Before I talk about Jeff Merkley, I want to say a word about Steve Novick. Steve has been a great progressive activist in Oregon. The work he's done on ballot measures and his work as a lawyer is incredibly admirable. He ran a great race and I expect to see a lot more from him in the future. All the Novick supporters should be proud of the race they ran, and the candidate they championed. If Merkley hadn't been the candidate running for the nomination, I would have been working side by side with you. That said, it's time to talk about our chosen candidate to fight Republican Gordon Smith; Jeff Merkley.
When I came to Oregon 6 1/2 years ago, the public schools were increasing the numbers of students per classroom and shortening the school year for students. A number of public schools were facing closures because of a funding crisis. The House was under longtime Republican rule and there were more payday lenders than Starbucks and McDonalds combined. When I came to Oregon, gay couples did not have the same rights as straight couples. House Speaker Jeff Merkley changed that and that's the kind of leadership you can expect from him as United States Senator from Oregon.
Well now! As you can see, Mr. Novick holds a 5-point numeric edge here, with 38% of the vote and 19% still undecided. Practically speaking, as with previous polls the undecided vote is waaay too high to make a definitive call--but Novick's lead in this iteration comes extremely close to being a statistically significant advantage (2.7x2 = 5.4% confidence interval; 5 point Novick lead).
this oregon senate primary is interesting. what's the deal with Steve Novick, Jeff Merkley, etc., who is the more progressive candidate, and will Obama's endorsement of Merkley help him, and if Novick wins, does that hurt the DSCC and to a certain extent Chuck Schumer's credibility, somebody please just answer some questions for me on who progressives are supporting.
I have been a staunch Edwards supporter since back before he announced his run for President in 2004. I spent thousands, (yes thousands) of hours over the years blogging for John Edwards. I believed in his policy proposals, loved his focus on poverty issues and thought he was a very electable candidate. Ever since his departure from the race I have been an undecided voter here in Oregon. I'm not undecided anymore......
As head of the deep-pocketed Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, New York Sen. Charles Schumer hand-picked his party's nominee to take on Oregon Sen. Gordon Smith, the last Republican standing on the West Coast.
But voters may have another idea.
Days before votes are counted in the Oregon primary, Schumer's choice — Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley — is in a tight battle with Portland lawyer and activist Steve Novick. Polls show the race is too close to call.
Republican Gordon Smith is spending nearly half a million dollars attacking Oregon Senate candidate and current House Speaker Jeff Merkley. It's become strikingly clear that Gordon Smith is scared to face Jeff Merkley in the general election. Gordon Smith is trying to convince voters that Merkley is politics as usual and he's the candidate of change. Seriously.
With just five days left until ballots are counted, most of the papers in the state that will weigh in on their choice for Democratic Senate nominee have now done so. Steve Novick has now racked up 12 of 15 general circulation papers in the state, and they run the gamut of west, east, south, north, urban, rural, staid, irreverent, conservative, liberal, daily, weekly--you name it. If it's printed in Oregon and reaches a decent number of folks, unless you read the Salem S-J, The Bend Bulletin or the Eugene Reg-Guard you probably read a Novick endorsement.
Any candidate would love to overwhelm his opponent in newspaper endorsements, but this isn't just a run of the mill choice of one guy over another. One man has lots of legislative experience, the other has none (although more than enough policy experience). One man is his state party's leader, the other a faithful Democrat but by no means among the power players. One man has the weight of the national party dumping 400K into the race to help him, as well as the sitting governor, while the other man has his friends, the people he meets and a remarkable band of volunteers.
{Links to all 12 nods, plus a late analysis by WaPo's Chris Cillizza, below}
The following is a preview of Oregon's statewide and congressional races, as well as the Portland mayoral race. It includes my current projections for what will happen if the votes were counted today.
Last night I was watching the cable news networks coverage of the Edwards endorsement. It was a big night for me and Obama supporters considering the weight of such an endorsement. In between my excitement for John and Obama, every commercial break reminded me that I have another big fight on my hands. Gordon Smith is airing a negative attack ad on my preferred Senate candidate Jeff Merkley constantly. He just released twonew misleading negative radio ads against Merkley as well. Gordon Smith is making his opinions known, he does not want to face Jeff Merkley. Why? Merkley can beat Gordon Smith, that's why.
The primary is just one week away here in Oregon. When you look at the polls from the past month there's only one conclusion you can make. Oregon Senate candidate and current House Speaker Jeff Merkley is climbing up the polls. Here's a snippet from Survey USA:
Eight days until votes are counted in the Democratic Primary for US Senate in Oregon, state House Speaker Jeff Merkley and attorney Steve Novick remain effectively tied, though today Merkley has the nominal advantage, 31% to 27%.
Last August, I was offered the job of a lifetime (for me):
Jeff Merkley hired me to be the Netroots Outreach Coordinator for his U.S. Senate campaign.
I started my blogging career as one of the co-founders of Preemptive Karma and later as one of the co-founders of Loaded Orygun. I managed to do some pretty decent work over at those blogs that I’m very proud of. I worked very hard to write solid, independent pieces that reported the goings on in Oregon politics and culture from my progressive perspective.
I interviewed Jeff in 2006 just after the Oregon House flipped from the Karen Minnis led Republican hands to Democrat, due in large part to Jeff’s personal effort and strategic vision. I remember being so impressed by his sharp mind and thoughtful way of speaking. And the way he looked me in the eye when he talked to me—unabashedly honest.
A new Rasmussen poll of the Oregon Senate race shows Republican incumbent Gordon Smith still under 50%, for the third month in a row.
Any incumbent who polls below 50% is considered potentially vulnerable and this month’s polling contains even more bad news for Smith—support for his potential Democratic challengers is increasing.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Oregon voters finds Smith leading Jeff Merkley by just three percentage points, 45% to 42%. In late March, he enjoyed a thirteen point lead. In February, he was ahead of Merkley by eighteen points.
When matched against Steve Novick, Smith leads by six percentage points, 47% to 41%. In the March poll, Novick trailed by eleven. In February, the gap was thirteen points.....
In Oregon, Smith is viewed favorably by 55% of the state’s voters, Novick by 46%, and Merkley by 42%. The numbers for both Democrats are trending up.
Those figures include just 18% with a Very Favorable opinion of their incumbent Senator. Thirteen percent (13%) have a Very Favorable view of Novick while 9% say the same about Merkley.
Oregon's primary is May 20, and Smith, though unopposed, has hit the airways with an attack ad aimed at both Democrats, all the while trying to present himself as the "change" candidate ("See? I'm just like Obama! Really! Change!")
The latest SUSA poll (May 1) has Merkley and Novick virtually tied, with Novick at 30% and Merkley at 28%, making up the double digit deficit he had in the April poll. Given the decent performance of each of them in holding Smith under 50, the NRSC has another race to worry about.
[crossposted at Loaded Orygun, Oregon's progressive community...]
Does this qualify as an endorsement? On Friday, during the KPOJ Morning Show in Portland featuring national broadcaster Thom Hartmann, he and broadcasting colleague Carl Wolfson divulged their Senate votes while taking a call from a 70-year old Aloha voter who is also going with Steve.
Click the link for the audio, here's the transcript:
Thom Hartmann: Ben in Aloha, nice to welcome you to the show, Ben.
Ben in Aloha: Hey, thank you guys, I would really like to thank that lady for keeping the faith out there. And I would also like to mention Steve Novick's campaign. I'm 70 years old and I think that Steve is the best chance that we have to move Oregon forward in the Senate --
Thom:I would tell you Ben, I voted for him yesterday. We mailed in our ballots this morning.[emph me]
During the primary race in Oregon there have been a number of signs that Republican Gordon Smith fears his possible Democratic opponent House Speaker Jeff Merkley. Whether it was his campaign's decision to release their fundraising numbers early to counter the positive fundraising press the Merkley Campaign was receiving or his ridiculous email blast I wrote about yesterday. Now, Smith's campaign is on the attack like never before and they've got their sights set on Oregon Senate candidate Merkley. Could this be another indication that the Smith Campaign does not want to face Jeff Merkley in November?
