Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Doverspa at Red State is using the latest from "rabidly impartial"
FactCheck.org to prop up Republicans. Here's a hint: if Doverspa or some of the folks at Red State are touting anyone's impartiality, look twice. In this case, they are using Factcheck's notoriously bad fact checking to take on the issue of the abortion rate under the Bush administration, and lying.
In October of last year, Glen Harold Stassen and Gary Krane wrote an opinion piece printed in the Houston Chronicle "Why Abortion Rate Is Up In Bush Years." (Note, the original title to the piece as posted at Sojourner's Sojomail was "Pro-Life? Look at the fruits." This title is the Chronicle's, not Stassen and Krane's.)
FactCheck asserts that in this column, Stassen and Krane "claim that abortions are rising again," a claim picked up and repeated by numerous Democratic politicians. What did the authors actually say? Follow me to the extended to find out.
Abortion was decreasing. When President Bush took office, the nation's abortion rates were at a 24-year low, after a 17.4 percent decline during the 1990s. This was a steady decrease averaging 1.7 percent per year. (The data come from Minnesota Citizens Concerned for Life using the Guttmacher Institute's studies.)
Enter George W. Bush in 2001. One would expect the abortion rate to continue its consistent course downward, if not plunge. Instead, the opposite happened.
We found four states that have posted three-year statistics: Kentucky's increased by 3.2 percent from 2000 to 2003. Michigan's increased by 11.3 percent from 2000 to 2003. Pennsylvania's increased by 1.9 percent from 1999 to 2002. Colorado's rates skyrocketed 111 percent. We found 12 additional states that reported statistics for 2001 and 2002. Eight states saw an increase in abortion rates (14.6 percent average increase), and four saw a decrease (4.3 percent average).
Under Bush, the decade-long trend of declining abortion rates appears to have reversed. Given the trends of the 1990s, 52,000 more abortions occurred in the United States in 2002 than would have been expected before this change of direction.
Note the distinction. FactCheck says that Stassen and Krane are stating that the abortion rate is increasing, period. What Stassen and Krane are really saying is that the rate of decrease in the abortion rate has slowed--had it continued along the trend lines of the previous decade, there would have been 52,000 fewer abortions in 2002.
How does FactCheck buttress this lie? By misstating what the Guttmacher Institute ACTUALLY says. Thus while FactCheck claims that Stassen is contradicted by Guttmacher, in fact they say precisely the same thing:
A new analysis from The Alan Guttmacher Institute shows that U.S. abortion rates continued to decline in 2001 and 2002, although the rate of decline has slowed since the early 1990s.
Fact Check clearly needs more fact checkers. Here are some more lies:
Stassen said that in the four states that had already posted statistics for three full years of Bush's first term, he found that abortion was up. Twelve more states had posted statistics for two years of Bush's term - 2001 and 2002 - and here the picture was mixed. According to Stassen, "Eight states saw an increase in abortion rates (14.6 percent average increase), and five saw a decrease (4.3 percent average)." . . . So Stassen was projecting findings onto the entire country from 12 states that he said had showed an increase and 5 (or maybe 4) that he said had shown a decrease. That leaves a total of 34 other states for which Stassen had no data whatsoever. . . . Stassen himself named only Kentucky, Michigan, Pennyslvania and Colorado among the 16 states he says he studied. . . . The Guttmacher Institute found that two of the states Stassen used had unreliable reporting systems. In Colorado, for instance, where Stassen claimed that rates "skyrocketed 111 percent," the reporting procedure had been recently changed in order to compensate for historic underreporting. Guttmacher also found Arizona had an inconsistent reporting system.
Now why this would distort the level of decrease or increase is hard to say, and much harder to say why it would hurt Bush. Of course, Fact Check does not take long to contradict itself, by criticizing Stassen for including the historically LOW reported abortion state Colorado? Stassen can't win for losing with Fact Check.
And finally, the Big Lie about Hillary:
Stassen offered his article as evidence that Bush's economic policies were driving pregnant women to abortion. And although he opposes abortion, his claim was soon picked up and repeated uncritically by the other side - supporters of abortion rights. In a speech to family-planning providers in New York on January 24, 2005 , Sen. Hillary Clinton recounted decreases in the abortion rate that occurred in her husband's administration, then lamented that the situation had changed. . . . [S]he omitted any mention of other states where abortions were going down, inviting her listeners to conclude that the national trend to fewer abortions had reversed itself since Bush took office.
But what did Hillary actually say?
But unfortunately, in the last few years, while we are engaged in an ideological debate instead of one that uses facts and evidence and common sense, the rate of abortion is on the rise in some states . In the three years since President Bush took office, 8 states saw an increase in abortion rates (14.6% average increase), and four saw a decrease (4.3% average), so we have a lot of work still ahead of us.
Where in the hell did Hillary get her facts wrong? What distortion?
Let's see what FactCheck missed in their reporting of the Guttmacher Institute's report. Hmmm, there would be that very large disclaimer, right there at the bottom of the press release: "Because these abortion estimates are not based on a comprehensive census, they are subject to some limitations and should be considered provisional." There would also be that little statement by the Institute's president, Sharon Camp: "It takes time for political decisions to be reflected in the statistical data, so it is too soon to tell what the impact of Bush administration policies will be on U.S. abortion rates." The Guttmacher Institute is a highly respected organization, for good reason. That FactCheck would use their analysis to try to buttress their claims, and leave out these key provisions, is certainly more telling about FactCheck than about Stassen and Clinton.
FactCheck's work, as it almost always is, is simply reflecting the same cherry-picking of data for which they criticize Stassen and Clinton. And what's worse, they use that data to lie about the statements Stassen and Clinton made. Keep that in mind the next time some Republican Winger cites "impartial" FactCheck. Like the GOP, FactCheck has no impunity in spewing whatever lie it takes to fit their agenda.
Update [2005-5-26 17:3:45 by mcjoan]:: Here's a very cynical update, in the guise of research. Will adding "abortion" to the title bring more readers? I'm curious, as this is the hot button issue of the week.